I love the analysis done in this piece by Mark Amaza. It is correct and good information for political research fellows and politicians.
Whenever the time for elections and
political campaigns come around in Nigeria, there are broadly two demographics
that politicians and political parties try to win over in exchange for votes:
those who are won over by the policy proposals of politicians, their characters
and records; and those for whom the most important things are the ethnic,
religious or regional backgrounds or their combination of the political
candidates.
The first demographic, mostly the
educated, exposed middle class, is unfortunately, not taken with all
seriousness because their numbers are not large enough to solely win a
politician an office. Most Nigerians and Nigerian voters are still beholden to
their ethnic, religious and regional sentiments before being nationalistic.
Despite all the public statements and
appearances of politicians in which they portray the entire voting public as
belonging to the former group of voters, the truth is that their real desire is
to win those in the latter group. This can be discerned by reading between the
lines of their statements, newspaper articles and informal discussions on
"the streets", or sometimes seen overtly, such as in the zoning
debacle that almost tore Nigeria apart in 2011.
Before I get to the crux of this
article, let us do a little history lesson:
It is a fact that in the 52 years of
Nigeria's independence, power has been held by one region for 37 of those years
– the Northern region. Admittedly, of those 37 years, only 13 of those years
were held by democratically elected governments with the rest shared among
various military governments.
This fact, together with such
policies as the federal character principle and quota systems for admissions
into government schools perceived to favour a less competitive North over the
South, and events such as the annulment of the June 12, 1993 elections adjudged
to have been won by Chief MKO Abiola, a South-Westerner have served to entrench
an anti-North sentiment in general among Southern voters.
It was due to the annulment that the
Northern power bloc came together at the onset of the transition programme of
General Abdulsalami Abubakar, the last military ruler in Nigeria, to sponsor
former President Olusegun Obasanjo to become president as a way of appeasing
the South, and the South-West in particular.
Fast forward to 2010, when Obasanjo
was already out of office for three years, and his installed successor, Umaru
Yar'adua had already passed on and his vice, Goodluck Jonathan sworn in after a
lot of power intrigues which sought to keep him away from being
constitutionally sworn in.
A hitherto known zoning principle
within the ruling Peoples' Democratic Party reared its head, causing a bitter
fight and dividing the country along North-South lines. Jonathan went on to run
for President against 3-time candidate and former Head of State, General
Muhammadu Buhari, which he won.
Unfortunately, the results caused
riots in many parts of the North, which turned religious in some places and led
to the mob killings of eight National Youth Service Corps members serving in
Bauchi. In turn, it deepened the anti-North sentiment in the South.
However, what many have failed to
realize is that President Goodluck Jonathan's victory in 2011 is a first, not
just for the fact that he is the first ethnic minority and indigene of the
South-South to become President, but also because it confirmed the fact that
the new power bloc in Nigeria was not the traditional Northern establishment,
but Northern minorities (chiefly the North Central or Middle Belt and Northern
Christians).
It was the first time in the history
of Nigeria that anyone had become the President or Head of State without the
support of the North-West and North-East, who have had a tight grip on power in
this country even before independence.
Jonathan had long been assured of the
fact that he was going to win his home base of South-South, and the
neighbouring South-East, which was aided by the fact that his opponents did not
take their campaign trains as far as those areas.
The Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN)
was expected to sweep its South-West stronghold, but surprisingly came off
winning only one state, Osun. This led to conspiracy theories of its strongman
and main influencer, the former Lagos State governor Bola Tinubu being paid off
to deliver the region to the PDP. Another theory goes that the people of the
region were drawn to Jonathan who kept his promise that the elections would be
free and fair in the aftermath of the National Assembly elections which saw the
PDP left with only one senatorial seat and six House of Representative seats in
the entire region. Once again, the opposition candidates did not cover the
region as much as the incumbent president did.
But the shocker for many, especially
those who are not astute political watchers and have been made to believe that
the North votes as one, was his winning seven out of the 19 Northern states
(Adamawa, Taraba, Benue, Plateau, Nassarawa, Kogi and Kwara) and gaining up to
25% in another 8 states.
This is because besides the
anti-North sentiment in the South, there is an increasing desire by the
North-Central and Christian-dominated areas in the North-East and the
North-West to be politically independent and relevant as the Middle Belt.
What has caused the need for this
political independence?
On one hand, it is the result of many
religious crises such as chiefly those in Kaduna and Jos, raising anti-Muslim
sentiment among Northern Christians. It became a bond for Northern Christians
from Zuru in Kebbi State all the way to Southern Borno, more than the bonds of
ethnicity and battle-cry of "One North" that was popular during the
time of the charismatic Premier of the Northern Region, the late Sardauna of
Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello.
On the other hand, it is the desire
by ethnic groups in the North to be independent of what they have termed
"the Hausa-Fulani hegemony". These ethnic groups, which are sometimes
religiously mixed such as those in Kogi and Kwara States, believe that the use
of the Northern regional card is just a ploy by Hausa-Fulani politicians to get
ahead at their own expense.
These are the factors that played to
Jonathan's advantage in winning the 2011 presidential polls and as far as it
goes, these factors remain the same.
A PDP presidential ticket in 2015
headlined by Jonathan would still see him retain strong support in the
South-South and the South-East. The North-East (Borno, Yobe and Bauchi States)
and the North-West remain strongholds of the opposition (CPC/ANPP/APC), while
barring any 2011-like miracle, the South-West would go the way of ACN/CPC/APC.
These are facts that the opposition
which is fast merging under the banner of the All Progressives' Congress is not
unaware of. This is reflected in the various combinations that have been mooted
for a presidential ticket – a Northern Muslim (North-West or North-East)
presidential candidate and a running mate from the South-East/South-South.
However, they seem not to have
factored in the new power bloc in Nigeria into their calculations, and unless
efforts are made to woo them, 2015 is likely to be a repeat of 2011.
So what must be done then?
For one, the opposition must resist
any attempt at handpicking a presidential candidate, especially if that
candidate ends up being a Hausa/Fulani-Muslim that those in the Middle Belt are
not usually comfortable with for both religious and ethnic reasons. So far, all
the names that have been rumoured to be likely picked as presidential candidate
for the party fit this description. The party must make every effort to show
that it is offering candidates from every part of the country a level-playing ground,
as anything other than that could be used to skew the narrative against them.
Secondly, the opposition must make
genuine efforts to gain the support of Northern Christians by winning their
trust, especially if the presidential candidate ends up being a Northern
Muslim. One main reason for this is the fact that Buhari still finds it hard to
gain the trust of many Christians in general, especially Northern Christians
since his alleged statement in 2001 that Muslims should vote for only Muslims.
The new party could be seen as his party, since his CPC is a major partner.
This trust would not be achieved by just picking a pastor as a running mate as
in 2011 which many saw as a cosmetic treatment, but at genuinely reaching out
to the community through its opinion leaders, who are more often than not, not
politicians.
Controversial as these may sound,
they also show the reality of our political environment, and a politician must
keep these in mind while developing strategies for his/her campaign.
This new power bloc has the power to
change electoral fortunes in Nigeria and every politician must aspire to keep
them happy.
by Mark Amaza
8 May 2013
